Talking the Tropics w/ Mike: No storm aimed at U.S. *this week*..disturbance nears Caribbean weekend

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Tropics threats for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: None.

“Buresh Bottom Line”:

* There is no named storm aimed at the U.S. this week!

* The SW Atlantic, Greater Antilles & Caribbean will be the next area to monitor for possible tropical development.

* “The Hell that was Helene” - Buresh Blog.

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

(1) A tropical wave - ‘L-94′ is moving is moving west over the Eastern Atlantic & continues to have a well defined circulation but is lacking convection within a dry, stable air mass. As weak as the wave is now, this will be something to track/watch as the Bermuda High is now strengthening & shifting west allowing for waves to scoot much farther west vs. the past 4 weeks or so. There’s a chance this becomes a tropical depression or storm before reaching the SW Atlantic, Puerto Rico &/or Greater Antilles by this weekend. Land interaction may weaken the system before possibly re-emerging over the Caribbean or prior to turning more east due to an upper level trough & associated cold front. The European model is generally stronger skirting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola & Cuba before an abrupt turn east late in the weekend/early the following week (Oct. 21-24). The GFS model is now stronger & has trended north with a direct hit on Haiti & the Dominican Republic by late Sat. then weakening after a dip south over the Caribbean.

The ‘HorizonAI’ global model - the First Alert Weather Team is one of the few in the world with access to this model & a model that was pretty solid for Helene & Milton - is generally weak but does show impacts to Hispaniola by late Sunday re-emerging over the Caribbean as a weak system.

(2) Only the GFS model continues to indicate (& it’s insistent & strong) tropical development over the Western/Southwest Caribbean during the upcoming week. There is a whole lot of convection there + pressures are generally low, so it’s within the realm of possibility. Proximity to land could limit overall development... movement should be west into Central America. Flooding & mudslides - regardless of development - will be a threat for Belize, Honduras, Guatemala & Nicaragua & nearby areas much of this week.

Climavision ‘HorizonAI’ global model is below & has been a good “steady eddy” & compromise between other models this season. The forecast map below is for early Sat., Oct. 19th, late Sun., Oct. 20, & late Tue., Oct. 22 showing ‘94-L’ moving through the Greater Antilles while quit weak then over the Caribbean the middle of next week. The model does not currently develop the Western Caribbean disturbance that the GFS is “all about”.

‘Velocity potential anomalies’ below shows “sinking” air (brown lines) across the Atlantic Basin. With sinking air, tropical development can occur but overall conditions are not as conducive as when there is overall rising (green lines) air where convection is active. An upward “pulse” over the Atlantic is due again by late month, early Nov.

Milton track & winds last week:

Remarkable accuracy by the Nat. Hurricane Center with the very first advisory issued Sat., Oct. 5th for Milton’s landfall 4 1/2 days later:

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.

The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean is very high:

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

October tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for October:

Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear):

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we’ve already seen this with Beryl & Debby this year). In my personal opinion, there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2024 names..... “Nadine” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18 (the last time this year’s list was used)... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous because of the ‘04 season when Charley, Frances, Jeanne & Ivan - all retired names - hit Florida within a matter of about 6 weeks. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

Hurricane season climatology:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The colors will brighten greatly as the water warms to greater depths deeper into the season: